The College Football Playoff Selection Committee dropped its third rankings of the 2025 season on Tuesday, November 18, 2025 — and the landscape shifted dramatically. The Ohio State University Buckeyes stayed put at No. 1, but the real story wasn’t their perfect 10-0 record. It was the fall of Alabama. One loss, and the Crimson Tide tumbled from the top four to No. 10. In their place? The University of Georgia Bulldogs, who climbed to No. 4 after a gritty 9-1 season. The top four — Ohio State, Indiana University Hoosiers (11-0), Texas A&M University Aggies (10-0), and Georgia — now hold the coveted first-round byes. And that’s just the start.
Alabama’s Collapse Reshapes the Playoff Picture
It’s rare to see a single game upend the entire playoff race. But when Alabama fell to LSU 31-28 in overtime on November 15, it didn’t just cost them a win — it cost them their spot among the elite. The committee, meeting in Irving, Texas, didn’t just notice the loss. They factored in Alabama’s weakened strength of schedule after dropping two of their last three games. Meanwhile, Georgia’s 24-17 road win over Florida State — a top-15 team — gave them the momentum to leapfrog the Crimson Tide. "It wasn’t just the loss," said Greg McElroy, former Alabama QB and ESPN analyst, during the live reveal on YouTube. "It’s the trajectory. Georgia’s winning ugly, against tough opponents. Alabama’s been trending down. That matters."
That drop sent shockwaves through the top 10. Texas Tech and Notre Dame each moved up one spot, while Oklahoma and Oregon held firm. The ripple effect? The bracket projections now show a potential semifinal clash between Ohio State and Texas A&M — a rematch of last year’s thriller — if both win their quarterfinals.
The New Contenders: Who’s In, Who’s Out
Five teams entered the top 25 for the first time this season — a sign the race is wide open. Tulane (8-2) snuck in at No. 24, Arizona State at No. 25, and Houston, Missouri, and Illinois filled out 23-21. Their inclusion isn’t just noise. It means the committee is rewarding wins over ranked opponents, not just records. Tulane’s 34-28 win over Cincinnati, a top-10 team, was the difference-maker. Illinois’ 38-31 upset of Michigan State? That got them noticed.
On the flip side, Texas Longhorns went from a top-10 hopeful to No. 17 after losing to Oklahoma State. Their seven-spot plunge is the steepest of the week. "They had a chance to be in the conversation," said Joey Galloway, former Ohio State receiver. "Now? They’re fighting just to make the 12-team field. And they’ve got two tough games left."
Bracket Projections: The Road to the Semis
Based on current rankings, here’s how the first round would break down:
- Ohio State (1) hosts Notre Dame (9)
- Oklahoma (8) hosts Texas Tech (5)
- Texas A&M (3) hosts Alabama (10)
- Georgia (4) hosts Tulane (24)
- Ole Miss (6) hosts Miami (13)
- Oregon (7) hosts BYU (11)
Winners advance to the quarterfinals, with the top four teams — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia — getting a free pass to the semis. That’s the prize. And Indiana, despite being undefeated, is the only one without a marquee win. Their schedule is the weakest of the top four. "They’ve been perfect," said Rece Davis, ESPN’s lead host. "But perfection isn’t enough if you haven’t proven you can beat the best. That’s the question they’ve got to answer next week."
What’s Next? The Final Countdown
The next rankings drop Tuesday, November 25 — just before conference championship weekend. That’s when things get wild. If Indiana loses to Purdue, the Hoosiers could drop out of the top four. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, they lock up a semifinal spot. And if Texas A&M stumbles against LSU, Alabama could sneak back in. The committee has five ranking releases this season. Three are done. Two remain. The final one? Sunday, December 7, 2025. That’s when the 12-team bracket becomes official — and the real playoff begins.
Here’s the thing: this isn’t just about who’s hot. It’s about who’s been consistent. Ohio State’s defense has allowed fewer than 17 points per game since Week 4. Indiana’s offense is averaging 42.7 points. Georgia’s secondary has intercepted 14 passes this season. These aren’t flukes. They’re the reason they’re here.
Behind the Scenes: How the Committee Decides
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee — a 13-member panel of former coaches, administrators, and athletes — meets every Tuesday to evaluate teams using 11 criteria: win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, conference championships won, and more. They don’t use polls or computers. Just human judgment. And they’re watching everything: margin of victory? No. But how a team wins? Absolutely. Did they dominate a ranked team on the road? That matters. Did they barely escape a 2-9 squad? That counts against them.
"We’re not looking for perfect teams," one committee member told Sports Illustrated anonymously. "We’re looking for teams that have earned it. Every win, every loss, every close call — it all adds up."
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this affect Indiana’s chances of making the final four?
Indiana’s 11-0 record is impressive, but their schedule ranks 28th nationally in strength. They’ve beaten no top-10 teams, and their closest win was by six points against a 7-4 Northwestern squad. If they lose to Purdue next week, they’ll likely drop out of the top four. Even if they win, they’ll need Georgia or Texas A&M to lose to keep their bye. The committee values quality wins over perfect records — and Indiana hasn’t proven they can beat elite competition.
Why did Texas A&M stay at No. 3 despite having fewer wins than Indiana?
Texas A&M’s schedule is significantly tougher. They’ve beaten three top-10 teams this season — including a 31-24 win over Alabama in October — and have two road wins against ranked opponents. Indiana’s wins are mostly at home, against mid-tier teams. The committee prioritizes strength of schedule and quality wins over raw record. A&M’s 10-0 record includes more difficult opponents than Indiana’s 11-0.
Can Alabama still make the playoff?
It’s unlikely. Alabama’s at No. 10, and the top six teams are projected to host first-round games. To make the playoff, they’d need to beat Texas A&M, then win two more games — all while hoping four teams ahead of them lose. Even if they win out, their two losses to LSU and Texas Tech (both top-15 teams) hurt their resume. The committee has shown little patience for teams with multiple losses outside the top four.
Which team has the hardest path to the semifinals?
Georgia. They’re the lowest-ranked top-four team, and their first-round opponent, Tulane, is a dangerous 8-2 team with a top-15 offense. If Georgia wins, they’d face either Ole Miss or Miami — both high-powered offenses. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Texas A&M have clearer paths. Georgia’s defense is strong, but they’ve yet to face a team like Texas A&M’s offense. A slip-up here could cost them a home semifinal.
What happens if a top-four team loses in the quarterfinals?
The committee has never had this scenario before — but they’ve said they’ll prioritize win-loss record and strength of schedule over seeding. If, say, No. 4 Georgia loses to Tulane, the committee could still select the winner of that game (Tulane) over a 9-3 team from a Power Five conference. The 12-team format is designed to reward performance, not just seeding. A Cinderella run is possible.
Why are teams like Tulane and Houston in the rankings now?
Tulane beat Cincinnati (then ranked No. 12) and Houston beat UCF (No. 14) — both Power Five teams. The committee now rewards Group of Five teams for beating ranked opponents, especially on the road. Tulane’s win over Cincinnati was a 34-28 road upset. That’s the kind of result that moves the needle. For the first time, the playoff isn’t just about conference titles — it’s about who’s winning the toughest games, no matter the league.
