New method for precise calculation of the club coefficient

Dr Pawel Dimow

 

          As presently constructed, the club coefficient is determined by the results of the club in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League in the five previous seasons, as well as by the coefficient of the club's association which is based on the results of the clubs of the association in the two major European club competitions over the same period. UEFA uses the club coefficient to determine the club's seeding in the European club competitions draws and the club coefficient is widely regarded as a quantification of the football strength of the club. In my opinion, however, the club coefficient can be more objective if it includes the results of the club in the domestic competitions, UEFA Super Cup, FIFA Club World Cup and covers a shorter period of time. I will attach some arguments why I think a modification of the current method for calculation of the club coefficient should be considered:

 

• In a league called “Champions League”, the very strong team of Borussia Dortmund, which won the last two titles in the third strongest European domestic league and are the reigning German Cup winners, had a club coefficient of 31.037 (26^th position among the 32 participating clubs) and were seeded in Pot 4 with the lowest ranked teams. At the same time, their German rivals Schalke 04, which won their last national title in 1958, had a two-and-a-half times higher club coefficient of 78.037 (13^th position) and were seeded in Pot 2. Of course, Schalke 04 made two excellent runs in the European competitions as they reached the semifinals of the 2010/11 UEFA Champions League and the quarterfinals of the 2011/12 UEFA Europa League while Borussia Dortmund had no notable success on the European stage in the previous five seasons. In my opinion, however, the difference between the coefficients of the two clubs should not be so large and the reigning two-time German champions should not be seeded in a pot with the lowest ranked teams.

 

• UEFA Europa League participants Newcastle United did not record a single game in the European club competitions in the previous five seasons but managed a club coefficient of 16.882 (20% of England’s association coefficient for each of the last five seasons). Over the same period of time, the Magpies played 152 English Premier League matches, 46 English Championship matches, 11 FA Cup matches and 12 League Cup matches but all these games had absolutely no influence on the club coefficient which was formed entirely on the basis of the performances of other English clubs in the European club competitions over the same period of time. I do not think this is a fair solution. Why shouldn’t your club coefficient be based on your own results but on the results of other teams? In my opinion, the domestic results should be an important component particularly of the coefficient of clubs who have not played in the European competitions.

 

• At the start of the 2012/13 edition of the European club competitions, Bulgarian participants Ludogorets Razgrad and Lokomotiv Plovdiv, who both did not play in Europe in the last 5 seasons, had a coefficient of 2.850. Having the same club coefficient, calculated to the thousandth, usually draws a conclusion that both teams have achieved very similar results over the last 5 seasons. But is this the case? Last season, Ludogorets won the treble in Bulgaria in the their first ever campaign in the top flight and defeated Lokomotiv Plovdiv, which finished sixth in the league, both in the Bulgarian Cup final as well as in the match for the Bulgarian Supercup (this game, however, was played on 11^th July, after the start of the 2012/13 European club competitions). In the last 5 years, Ludogorets spent 3 seasons in the third division, 1 season in the second division and 1 season in the top flight while Lokomotiv Plovdiv was among the elite Bulgarian teams without a break and without winning any trophies. Is it objective, teams with so different results to have exactly the same club coefficient, calculated to the thousandth?

 

• Clubs which win the very prestigious UEFA Super Cup and FIFA Club World Cup do not receive any additional points to their club coefficient for these important international triumphs. In my opinion, it is a good idea to award the clubs 2 points for a win and 1 point for a draw (with penalty shoot-outs not affecting the calculation) when they participate in the match for the UEFA Super Cup as well as in the semifinals and final of the FIFA Club World Cup.

 

• Five years is a long time in football and a club coefficient calculated on the basis of the results in such a lengthy period may not present the real football strength of the clubs objectively. In a 5-year period, football clubs usually undergo significant transformations and often their 2007 version has almost nothing in common with the one of 2012. That is why I think that results recorded so long ago by different playing and coaching staff should not have an impact on the current club coefficient. For example, if we compare the squads announced by Steaua Bucureşti for the group stage of the 2007/08 UEFA Champions League and the group stage of the 2012/13 UEFA Europa League we will not find a single player who is present on both lists. Moreover, since September 2007, the club has made 16 coaching changes. Significant overhauls over such period of time often happen in the clubs from the top European leagues, too. For instance, David Albelda is the only player present in both Valencia CF squads for the group stage of the 2007/08 and 2012/13 Champions League, Joe Hart and Micah Richards are the only two players present in both Manchester City squads for the group stage of the 2008/09 UEFA Cup and the 2012/13 UEFA Champions League, Rémy Vercoutre and Anthony Réveillère are the only two players selected in both Olympique Lyonnais squads for the group stage of the 2007/08 UEFA Champions League and the 2012/13 UEFA Europa League, etc. I agree, however, that the club coefficient should cover several seasons and would like to suggest removing the earliest two seasons from the club coefficient and calculating it on the basis of the achieved results over the last three seasons.

 

New club coefficient

 

          In the presented draft method for calculation of the club coefficient, the 20% of the value of the national association’s coefficient is deducted from the current club coefficient and replaced with bonuses based on the performance of the club in the major domestic competitions – the national league, the national cup tournament and the national super cup. Results from the domestic league cup are not included as this is not a major competition and is not staged in many of the UEFA member countries. Due to the differences in the regulations of the national cup tournament in the various countries (single legs, double legs, replays, extra time, penalty shootouts), only results in regulation time are included in the calculation. The points awarded by UEFA for the achieved results by the club in the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League remain unchanged. Points for achieving success in the UEFA Super Cup match and the FIFA Club World Cup are added. The new club coefficient covers the last three seasons only.

 

 

          In order to demonstrate how the new club coefficient will look in reality, I will present its components and calculation method in detail on the example of the already mentioned Borussia Dortmund. Similarly to the UEFA Coefficient Ranking System, values are calculated to the thousandth and not rounded up.

 

2009/10 Borussia Dortmund

 

Bundesliga

                                                                       

Points per game:                                               57 : 34 = 1.676

Goal difference per game:                                 12 : 34 = 0.352

 

Bonus for 5^th place:                                           0.12 x 18.083 = 2.169

Bonus for points per game                                1.676 x (0.20 x 18.083) = 1.676 x 3.616 = 6.060

Bonus for goal difference per game:                   0.352 x (0.10 x 18.083) = 0.352 x 1.808 = 0.636

 

Total Bundesliga bonus:                                2.169 + 6.060 + 0.636 = 8.865

 

DFB-Pokal

 

Points per game:                                               6 : 3 = 2.000

Goal difference per game:                                 5 : 3 = 1.666

 

Bonus for points per game                                2.000 x (0.10 x 18.083) = 2.000 x 1.808 = 3.616

Bonus for goal difference per game:                   1.666 x (0.05 x 18.083) = 1.666 x 0.904 = 1.506

 

Total DFB-Pokal bonus:                                 3.616 + 1.506 = 5.122

 

Total bonus for performance in domestic tournaments:                  8.865 + 5.122 = 13.987

 

Bonus for performance in the 2009/10 European club competitions:          0

 

2009/10 club coefficient:        0 + 13.987 = 13.987   

 

2010/11 Borussia Dortmund

 

Bundesliga

 

Points per game:                                               75 : 34 = 2.205

Goal difference per game:                                 45 : 34 = 1.323

 

Bonus for 1^st place:                                           0.25 x 15.666 + 2 = 3,916 + 2 = 5,916

Bonus for points per game                                2.205 x (0.20 x 15.666) = 2.205 x 3,133 = 6.908

Bonus for goal difference per game:                   1.323 x (0.10 x 15.666) = 1.323 x 1.566 = 2.071

 

Total Bundesliga bonus:                                5,916 + 6.908 + 2.071 = 14.895

 

DFB-Pokal

 

Points per game:                                               4 : 2 = 2.000

Goal difference per game:                                 3 : 2 = 1.500

 

Bonus for points per game                                2.000 x (0.10 x 15.666) = 2.000 x 1.566 = 3.132

Bonus for goal difference per game:                   1.500 x (0.05 x 15.666) = 1.500 x 0.783 = 1.174

 

Total DFB-Pokal bonus:                                3.132 + 1.174 = 4.306

 

Total bonus for performance in domestic tournaments:                  14.895 + 4.306 = 19.201

 

Bonus for performance in the 2010/11 European club competitions:          7

 

2010/11 club coefficient:        7 + 19.201 = 26.201

 

2011/12 Borussia Dortmund

 

Bundesliga

                                                                                                           

Points per game:                                               81 : 34 = 2.382

Goal difference per game:                                 55 : 34 = 1.617

 

Bonus for 1^st place:                                           0.25 x 15.250 + 2 = 3,813 + 2 = 5,812

Bonus for points per game                                2.382 x (0.20 x 15.250) = 2.382 x 3,050 = 7.265

Bonus for goal difference per game:                   1.617 x (0.10 x 15.250) = 1.617 x 1.525 = 2.465

                                                                                                       

Total Bundesliga bonus:                                5,812 + 7.265 + 2.465 = 15.542

 

DFB-Pokal

 

Points per game:                                               14 : 6 = 2.333

Goal difference per game:                                 12 : 6 = 2.000

 

Bonus for winning the cup                                 0.20 x 15.250 + 1 = 3.050 + 1 = 4.050                      

Bonus for points per game                                2.333 x (0.1 x 15.250) = 2.333 x 1.525 = 3.557

Bonus for goal difference per game:                   2.000 x (0.05 x 15.250) = 2.000 x 0.762 = 1.524

 

Total DFB-Pokal bonus:                                4.050 + 3.557 + 1.524 = 9.131

 

Total bonus for performance in domestic tournaments:      15.542 + 9.131 = 24.673

 

Bonus for performance in the 2011/12 European club competitions:          7

 

2011/12 club coefficient:        7 + 24.673 = 31.673

 

Borussia Dortmund new club coefficient:                 13.987 + 26.201 + 31.673 = 71.861

 

            Returning to my first example, I would like to compare the new club coefficients of Borussia Dortmund and Schalke 04:

 

 

          Schalke 04 (94.761) still have a higher club coefficient than Borussia Dortmund (71.861) as the proposed calculation method still favors good performances in the European club competitions. Borussia Dortmud, however, receive significant bonuses for their outstanding domestic form in the very strong German competitions.

          Due to the fact that that the 2011 DFL-Supercup match (Schalke 04 defeated Borussia Dortmund on penalties) was played on 23 July 2011, just before the start of the new 2011/12 Bundesliga season and after the start of the 2011/12 European club competitions, the bonus points of 2.566 (1 + 0.10 x 15.666) are added to the 2011/12 club coefficient of Schalke 04. However, as Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund qualified for the 2011 DFL-Supercup thanks to winning respectively the 2010/11 DFB-Pokal and 2010/11 Bundesliga, the bonus points are calculated on the basis of Germany’s association coefficient for 2010/11 (15.666).

          Since the match for the national super cup is usually played just before the start of the next domestic league season and, in the case of the domestic leagues using the traditional autumn-spring format, after the start of the next edition of the European club competitions, the above rule of calculating the super cup bonus on the basis of the association coefficient for the current season and adding it (including the UEFA Super Cup bonus) to the club coefficient for the next season will be applied in all cases, no matter whether the domestic league is organized in an autumn-spring or spring-autumn format.

          Football clubs from countries, which do not organize domestic super cup matches (currently these are Austria, Azerbaijan, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Northern Ireland, Norway, Republic of Ireland, Scotland, Serbia, Switzerland and Wales), will not receive super cup bonuses.

          In cases when a club wins the domestic double, super cup matches are not organized in Croatia, Lithuania, Moldova and Slovakia. Clubs which have won the double in these countries will also automatically receive the super cup bonus.

 

Additional notes

 

• As clubs from the various countries play a different number of domestic matches, in order to gain more objectivity, “average points per game” and “average goal difference per game” values are incorporated in the calculation method.

 

• An important innovation in the new club coefficient is the fact that clubs will have points deducted for recording a negative goal difference in the domestic league and cup tournament. For example, Schalke 04 had a negative goal difference of -6 goals (38 : 44) in the 2010/11 Bundesliga season and had 0.275 points deducted from their club coefficient. This value was obtained using the already described formula:

-6 (total goal difference in the Bundesliga) : 34 (total Bundesliga games) = -0.176 (goal difference per Bundesliga game)

-0.176 x (0.10 x 15.666) = -0.176 x 1.566 = -0.275

(1.566 is 10% of 2010/11 Germany’s association coefficient)

 

• In accordance with the new bonus system, clubs which participate in the lower divisions of their countries will also receive bonuses for the points they have won, the goal difference they have recorded and the place they have earned in the league standings. In the calculations, however, their association coefficient will be divided by the number which represents the level of their division in the national league system. For example, reigning Liechtenstein cup winners and 2012/13 UEFA Europa League participants USV Eschen/Mauren, which are currently competing in the newly created 1. Liga Classic (the 4^th level of the league system in Switzerland), will have the 2012/13 Switzerland’s association coefficient divided by four. USV Eschen/Mauren were a third-tier club last season so their 2011/12 club coefficient will include domestic bonuses based on association coefficient of 2.000 (2011/12 Switzerland’s association coefficient of 6.000 divided by 3). As Liechtenstein is the only UEFA member which does not organize its own league competition and its clubs participate in the Swiss league system, Liechtenstein clubs will receive domestic league bonuses on the basis of their performance in the Swiss league.

 

• Clubs, which participate in domestic leagues and domestic cups using the spring-autumn format, will receive bonuses for their performance in these competitions for the season which begins in the year of the start of the European club competitions covered in the club coefficient. For example, the 2012/13 club coefficient of Swedish club AIK will include bonuses for their participation in the 2012/13 UEFA Europa League, 2012 Allsvenskan (the Swedish top flight) and 2012/13 Swedish Cup. Interestingly, as from 2012, Sweden organizes its national league in the spring-autumn format and its national cup tournament in the autumn-spring format.

 

• Due to the fact that the top divisions in Andorra and Armenia consist of 8 teams while those in Austria, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Switzerland have 10 teams, all top flight clubs from these countries will receive bonuses for their place in the league standings (in accordance with the bonuses table).

 

• There is one specific case with the San Marino’s domestic league which is the only European top-level league organized in a system popular in America and other sports – group stage followed by playoffs to decide the title. In this case, my suggestion is to take into consideration all games when calculating the bonuses for points per game and goal difference per game (results in regulation time). However, only group stage matches will matter when calculating the bonus for the place in the league standings. As both groups have different number of teams and matches, average points per game and goal difference should be used to determine the league places. We can therefore have situations when different teams will win the first place in the standings after the group stage and the domestic title after the playoffs. For example, Tre Fiori were the best team in the group stage of the 2011/12 season but the title was won by Tre Penne in the playoffs. In accordance with the bonuses table, Tre Fiori will receive a bonus of 25% of the 2011/12 San Marino association coefficient while Tre Penne will be awarded 2 points for winning the title and 14% of the 2011/12 San Marino association coefficient for their 4^th place in the combined 2011/12 league standings.

 

• In order to favour clubs which win domestic trophies, I have decided to award them additional points. As already explained, clubs will receive additional 2 points for winning the domestic title, 1 point for winning the domestic cup and 1 point for winning the domestic super cup. This method will help clubs which win trophies in countries with lower association coefficients to compete in the UEFA coefficient rankings with clubs which does not win silverware in countries with higher association coefficients.

 

• The new calculation method also offers higher bonuses for clubs which win more games and record better goal difference in the domestic league and domestic cup tournament.

 

• As far as the seeding for the group stage of the UEFA Champions League is concerned, I would like to suggest placing the winner of the previous edition and the champions (no matter their club coefficient) of the seven countries with highest association coefficient in Pot 1. The reigning UEFA Champions League winners will be always placed in Group A while the groups of the other seven national champions will be drawn. As the name suggests, this is a league of champions and I think that the champions of Europe and the strongest domestic leagues should lead the eight groups. A situation like the current one with only 2 national champions in Pot 1 and the reigning two-time champion of the third strongest domestic league in Pot 4 is not fair in my opinion.

 

Conclusion

 

            With the exception of the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League winners, clubs qualify for the European club competitions on the basis of their domestic results and according to me these results should be taken into consideration in the calculation of the club coefficient. I think that the bonuses suggested in this paper are realistic and objective, taking into account the relevance and reputation of the involved football competitions. At the end, I would like to state my belief that with the new calculation method, club coefficients will present the real football strength of clubs more precisely and objectively.

 

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